Silent War - The Race to Control the Future

Forget bombs...this war is waged in nanometers. Trump’s tech war isn’t about trade; it’s about control of the future. But what comes after semiconductors?

Executive Summary

Some battles are fought with bombs, others with bullets. But the most decisive wars are fought in silence—through invisible networks, hidden codes, and the faint, pulsing heartbeat of machines no larger than a human fingernail. Most will never see the weapons.

Fewer still will recognize when the battlefield shifts beneath their feet.

But make no mistake: the first true war for global dominance of the 21st century is already underway.

Its name is technology. Its ammunition is the semiconductor. And its consequences will shape the future in ways the world has barely begun to imagine.

This is much more than just a trade war.

This is an arms race between the United States and China.

And Ground Zero in this arms race is technology.

Central to technology is semiconductors, and the ability to continue to increase the level of sophistication of semiconductors. Running a close second is the ability to withhold such advancements from each other.

This is where deglobalization is most evident.

There is no longer any pretense of diplomacy and goodwill. President Trump was vocal well before his inauguration on how he believed the U.S. was asleep at the wheel while China quickly caught up—by any means necessary—to America's leadership in technology, especially in matters of national interest and defense.

Central to Trump’s “America First” agenda platform is not only winning the technological arms race but also ensuring that China loses the race. Apart from partnering with leaders such as TSMC by onshoring semiconductor production, the administration also seeks to limit Chinese access to sophisticated chips through tariffs, thus forcing those trading partners with relations to both sides to now choose one side or the other.

The cost of choosing China over the U.S. would mean extremely onerous tariffs on exports.

The U.S. is now all in on this.

Tariffs are mostly a means to this end, notwithstanding there being a structural increase in the cost of doing business with the U.S.

Semiconductors—and the ability to increase their sophistication to fuel further technological advancement—will determine who wins and who loses. Further, how far can such sophistication go? Is there a limit to how much semiconductors can be advanced?

Moore’s Law, which for the past six decades has said that the number of transistors that can be fitted into an integrated circuit doubles roughly every two years, is now leveling out. It is reaching its limitations, as chips are now being manufactured at two nanometers—two billionths of a meter.

If Moore’s Law declines, what is in store for the tech war?

Are there any new technological substitutes on the horizon? Disruption and innovation are never linear. New technologies replace existing ones not with more of the same, but through revolutionary breakthroughs. Fiber optic cables were replaced by Wi-Fi. What might replace semiconductors, and who are leading the race for these?

This is a question that has geopolitical ramifications as well as economic consequences, and is something we are examining closely, as the U.S. and China have well and truly taken the gloves off in this fight.

While the immediate battle centers on semiconductors, the real story runs deeper. Semiconductors are not just the engines of technology—they are the silent architecture of modern power, embedded so thoroughly into economies, defenses, and daily life that few ever stop to consider their true weight.

The word itself is familiar, but the scale of what it represents remains hidden to most.

In the pages that follow, we will trace how these unassuming chips became the most contested territory of the modern world—and why understanding their future is the key to unlocking the next era of global power.

Once seen clearly, it is impossible to look away.

But what exactly is at stake in this race? And how did a handful of microscopic components become the most contested real estate on Earth?