βThe strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must.β β Thucydides, The History of the Peloponnesian War
For years, scholars, politicians, and global leaders have debated the true nature of the Rules-Based Order (RBO)βis it a noble system of cooperation and stability, or a means for powerful nations to exert dominance under the guise of fairness?
In our previous analysis (The Rules Based Order), we explored the mechanisms that have kept this system intact, its advantages, and the inherent contradictions that have fueled global skepticism. President Donald Trump is now at the center of this debate, actively reshaping Americaβs role within this order, testing its limits, and exposing its weaknesses.
Trumpβs foreign policy is not just a shift; it is a reckoning. He is not merely adjusting U.S. involvement in international institutionsβhe is actively reshaping the way the world operates. His strategy is an exercise in statecraft, where financial, geopolitical, economic, and military power are all leveraged in concert to serve America First objectives.
As Michael Every of Rabobank has observed in Grand Macro Strategy, power today cannot be neatly divided into separate categoriesβeconomic policy is foreign policy, and foreign policy is economic policy. Trump understands this better than any of his predecessors, and he is proving it by wielding every available toolβsanctions, tariffs, military posturing, diplomatic pressureβto ensure that American dominance remains unchallenged.
The world is no longer dealing with America of old.
A new doctrine is emerging, one that prioritizes national strength over global consensus, bilateral deals over multilateral constraints, and raw leverage over diplomatic niceties. This shift is happening in real-time, and its full consequences remain unknown. Will Americaβs new strategy force the world to adapt, or will it provoke a pushback that reshapes global power in unexpected ways? And more importantly, will Trumpβs bold vision redefine global leadership for decades to come, or will it trigger a resistance that reshapes the very foundations of world order?
One thing is certainβTrump is moving fast, and the world is taking notice.
But as the old system resists and fractures under pressure, the real question looms: What exactly is Trumpβs plan and will America emerge stronger than ever? Or is this the beginning of a geopolitical struggle that Trump cannot control?