Power, Not Policy!
Trump’s trade chaos isn’t chaos at all...it’s strategy. Brent Johnson unpacks the ruthless logic behind tariffs, leverage, and a new world order. Ready for what’s next?
In a recent episode of Thoughtful Money hosted by
, Brent Johnson…CEO of Santiago Capital and creator of the Dollar Milkshake Theory…delivered a wide-ranging and unapologetically sharp assessment of Trump’s second-term economic strategy.Johnson, known for threading geopolitical power moves through a financial lens, wasn’t there to moralize.
He was there to explain why what looks like chaos to most is, in fact, something very different: a calculated reordering of the global trade regime.
“Access to the U.S. market,” Johnson warned, “is no longer free.”
Despite the headlines, the handwringing, and the relentless alarm bells from policy elites across the Atlantic and Pacific, the United States isn’t quietly fading into irrelevance.
It’s sharpening its elbows, drawing up new rules, and making it very clear: this is about leverage, not loyalty.
This isn’t the flailing of a dying empire…it’s a conscious, calculated reassertion of dominance.
At the heart of this realignment is Trump’s rejection of the old frameworks: free trade, globalization, and rules-based diplomacy. And if you’re still asking whether this will work, Johnson’s take is clear…you’re asking the wrong question.
Let’s unpack what he said and why it matters.
“The Donald and the Damage Done”
Brent Johnson is no stranger to volatility…or to unpopular truths.
His take on Trump’s aggressive trade policy is clear: this isn’t improvisation. It’s power politics. It’s financial warfare. And it might just work.
As Johnson wrote in a recent research report titled, “The Donald & The Damage Done,”
“This is not the chaos of decline or the flailing of a fading empire. This is the world’s dominant power consolidating its control…unapologetically, aggressively, and with the full weight of its economic engine behind it.”
And later in the same piece: “This is not about trade policy or tariffs. It’s about power: who has it, who doesn’t, and what happens when the world’s largest economy stops pretending otherwise.”
Trump isn’t tinkering at the edges.
He’s tearing up the blueprint of globalism and redrafting it with a Sharpie.
In this new playbook, tariffs aren’t policy…they’re pressure. Supply chains aren’t logistics…they’re leverage. Foreign governments and multinationals aren’t partners…they’re counterparties.
Comparative Advantage, American-Style
Johnson’s outlook starts with first principles: the U.S., for all its flaws, still holds unmatched structural advantages. Energy independence. Agricultural surplus. Rule of law. Capital markets. Technological prowess. A consumer base unrivaled in size and appetite.
China, by contrast, has a demographic time bomb, a debt-laden shadow banking system, a crumbling property market, and a political system allergic to transparency.
That’s not to say the U.S. is in perfect health…it’s not…but the race is relative. And America still has the better shoes.
When the moment comes, Johnson believes the world won’t pick China over the U.S.
As he puts it, "Once diplomatic posturing fades and countries must choose, I don’t think they’ll pick China over the U.S. for several reasons."
Strategic Pain, Not Panic
For those fretting over stock market dips and rising bond yields, Johnson offers perspective: this was always going to be messy.
Think 2022. Interest rates snapped back after decades of artificial suppression, unleashing volatility across markets. Now, with Trump’s new trade doctrine, we’re facing another rupture.
Johnson expects this rough patch to last through Q3 or Q4.
But look beyond the immediate choppiness, and the early signs of structural change may begin to emerge: manufacturing returning, wage pressures rising, production relocating. Not all at once. But unmistakably real.
It’s not about pushing the S&P to new highs. It’s about putting main street ahead of wall street.
Make America Compete Again
Let’s be clear: Johnson isn’t pitching a MAGA campaign. He’s analyzing strategy, not selling slogans.
Trump’s goal, as Johnson sees it, boils down to two things:
Make America Great Again (however you define that).
Contain China.
Everything else…Mexico, Canada, Europe…is tactical. The core strategic objective is simple: keep China in the box.
If Johnson is right…and the age of polite globalization is giving way to something colder and more transactional…then the real question isn’t whether you agree.
It’s whether you’re ready for what comes next.
Trump doesn’t want to destroy China. He wants to outmaneuver it.
Collapse invites global chaos, and that’s bad for business…even Trump’s. What he wants is containment. Controlled competition. And a deal where the U.S. writes the terms.
This isn’t ideology. It’s self-interest with a nuclear ego.
The Playground Negotiator
If you’re still wondering why Trump didn’t build a coalition before swinging the hammer, Johnson’s response is simple: that’s not how he negotiates.
“This isn’t 3D chess,” Johnson says. “It’s the guy walking onto the playground with the biggest hammer and saying, ‘This is how it’s going to be.’”
Build consensus? Hold a summit? Draft a white paper? That’s not Trump.
That’s why we’re here in the first place…too many years of talk and too little action.
Trump skipped the preamble and went straight to the ultimatum: “You want access to the U.S. market? Get on board. Or get out of the way.”
From Global to Regional
So what comes next?
If Trump’s bet pays off, the world doesn’t revert to 1950s isolationism. It moves from a single, tightly wound global economy to a web of regional power centers.
China runs its neighborhood. Germany, if it can get its act together, might lead Europe. And the U.S. cements its dominance over the Western Hemisphere.
In this world, trade doesn’t vanish…it gets rerouted. Supply chains shorten. Alliances tighten. Volatility rises.
It won’t be painless. But it might just be the reset that forestalls something far worse.
The China Question
What about the argument that Trump’s strategy drives allies into China’s arms?
Johnson doesn’t buy it.
He points to China’s structural issues…debt, demographics, and dependency on U.S. consumption. If China loses access to the U.S. market, who exactly will buy its exports?
Its domestic consumers? Not at current margins.
Its neighbors? Maybe, but not at the scale required.
Its own currency? The yuan has no international demand. The dollar, for all its faults, is still the world’s invoice and reserve standard.
Relatively speaking, Johnson says, the U.S. is still in good shape.
Money is an extension of Power
In one of his more memorable presentations, Johnson equated money with power. Not metaphorically. Literally.
Think of the biggest guy in the prison yard. That’s the dollar. When Nixon closed the gold window in 1971, he wasn’t asking permission. He was asserting dominance.
“This is our currency,” John Connally said, “but your problem.”
It worked then. Johnson believes it can work again.
The Fourth Turning Frame
If this feels like uncharted territory, it’s not. It’s the Fourth Turning.
Big upheaval. Deep realignment. Followed…if we’re lucky…by renewal.
Transitions like this don’t unfold over quarters. They take years. Sometimes decades. Johnson urges investors to zoom out. Think in five- and ten-year arcs, not five-day candles.
Those declaring America finished? They’ve been doing it for over a century. Eventually, they might be right. But not today.
The Market View from Santiago Capital
So how is Brent Johnson investing through this storm?
Short-term volatility hedge: After trimming hedges in early spring, Johnson is adding them back.
Gold: Strategic holding. No near-term $10,000 fantasy. But not selling either.
Interest rates: Short duration, mostly T-bills.
Equities: U.S.-focused, tactically bought on dips, not aggressively short.
He’s not calling a bottom…but he’s not hiding under the bed either.
Expect chop. Trade accordingly.
Final Word from the Milkshake Guy
Brent Johnson’s closing advice to investors?
“Keep an open mind. Don’t get tied to one perspective. Listen to everyone, consider all viewpoints, and remove personal biases from your analysis. Focus on what’s most likely to happen, not what you want.”
In other words: don’t bring feelings to a power game.
Because when the world gets mercenary, only the realists survive.
Coming Soon: The tariff crackdown is just the opening salvo. What happens when financial warfare expands to capital flows, tech supply chains, and reserve currency privilege? The next shoe hasn’t dropped yet.
But it will.
🚨 The Trump Administration has thrown out the ivory tower frameworks of globalization, free trade, and rules-based cooperation…and replaced them with something far older, simpler, and more ruthless:
Realpolitik and Statecraft backed by Financial Warfare.