Macro Pilgrims Ledger Weekly Report
Stocks grind higher. Bonds slide. Gold holds firm. Crypto cracks. Is this quiet strength…or late-cycle complacency hiding beneath the surface?
“Walking the path of global markets, one step at a time.”
This week U.S. equity markets finished higher, with major indexes including the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average all registering weekly gains as technology and large-cap growth stocks led broader participation. Technology sector strength was punctuated by notable performance in leading semiconductor and AI-related equities, which contributed to positive returns in major averages mid-week.
Precious metals markets were volatile, with gold prices moving above key benchmarks during the week but ultimately showing uneven results as the market navigated both safe-haven demand and short-term price pressure.
Commodity price behavior was divergent, with energy prices, including Brent crude, showing signs of meaningful upward moves amid supply/geopolitical concerns, while industrial metals and other raw materials continued to trade within extended ranges.
Currency markets experienced fluctuations as well, with major exchange rates such as the euro and U.S. dollar trading within broad intraday ranges rather than establishing clear directional trends across the week.
“The way to build long-term returns is through preservation of capital and home runs.”
— Stanley Druckenmiller
The Week That Was
Last week’s U.S. markets were quiet on Monday as financial markets in the United States were closed for Presidents’ Day, leaving traders to reset positioning ahead of a busy slate of regional activity surveys and housing indicators.
On Tuesday, data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed that the Empire State Manufacturing Survey for February reported a modest expansion in regional manufacturing activity, with the general business conditions diffusion index holding positive at 7.1, similar to readings in recent months and indicating continued, if limited, growth among manufacturers in New York State. New orders rose modestly, inventories increased, and employment measures showed small gains, while both prices paid and received picked up from the prior month.
The National Association of Home Builders’ Housing Market Index for February edged slightly lower, with builder confidence falling one point to 36 and remaining well below the neutral 50 level, reflecting continued subdued sentiment in the single-family housing market amid affordability challenges and weak traffic of prospective buyers.
Wednesday’s releases brought updated housing construction statistics and Federal Reserve communications. The U.S. Census Bureau reported that housing starts and building permits data for December showed a rebound in single-family starts, lifting the overall pace of homebuilding, while permits for future construction declined modestly, suggesting continued constraints on future activity amid elevated financing costs.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve published the minutes of its January 27–28 policy meeting, reaffirming the decision to hold the target range for the federal funds rate steady; the minutes reflected FOMC participants’ assessments of economic and financial conditions at the time of the meeting. On the supply side of the Treasury market, the U.S. Treasury’s auction of 20-year bonds drew weaker demand metrics, with a lower bid-to-cover ratio and higher accepted yields than recent auctions, pointing to softer appetite for intermediate-to-long duration issuance at these levels.
Thursday’s labor market and regional survey indicators showed continued dynamics in employment conditions and manufacturing sentiment. Initial jobless claims for the week ending February 14 fell more than expected, with filings declining to approximately 206,000, marking one of the lowest weekly claims readings of the year and indicating ongoing relative stability in initial layoffs.
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey for February revealed a stronger than anticipated increase in its general activity index, rising to 16.3 from 12.6 in January and exceeding consensus expectations, even as the shipments component slowed and employment dipped into slightly negative territory; price indexes also declined from their prior levels but remained positive.
On Friday, early reporting of February flash purchasing managers’ indices underscored broadly modest expansion in U.S. business activity, with manufacturing and services PMI readings pointing to continued growth above the neutral 50 threshold but at a slower pace than in January, consistent with broader measures of softening output conditions.
