Macro Pilgrims Ledger Weekly Report

“Walking the path of global markets, one step at a time.”

This week saw a significant new set of data arrive in the form of the January 2026 Consumer Price Index, which showed that headline inflation slowed to 2.4 percent year-over-year and rose 0.2 percent month-over-month, coming in below consensus forecasts.

The softer inflation reading shifted expectations in money markets about Federal Reserve policy. Following the report, yields on U.S. Treasury securities declined and futures pricing for potential rate cuts later in 2026 increased materially.

U.S. equity markets were mixed over the course of the week, with major indexes trading in wide ranges as investors assessed the implications of the inflation data and ongoing sector rotation.

Precious metals prices also exhibited pronounced volatility this week, with silver experiencing one of its largest single-day percentage declines followed by a partial rebound, and gold moving sharply as markets responded to shifting rate expectations.

“Volatility is the price of admission. The prize inside are superior long-term returns. You have to pay the price to get the returns.” — Morgan Housel

The Week That Was

This week’s scheduled economic reports showed a mixture of moderation in labor costs, continued price pressures in traded goods, solid employment gains, and slower consumer inflation.