Macro Pilgrims Ledger Weekly | March 22, 2026

Global markets break key support levels as central banks hold rates steady and precious metals suffer worst week since 2020

Global markets experienced a volatile week, with a two-day rally at the start giving way to sharp losses mid-week and into Friday, leaving U.S. benchmarks lower for a fourth consecutive week.

The S&P 500 closed the week at 6,506, breaking below its 200-day moving average for the first time since May 2025. The Russell 2000 entered correction territory on Friday, falling more than 10% from its recent high, the first major U.S. benchmark to do so in 2026.

Gold posted its worst weekly performance since March 2020, falling approximately 7% on the week to close near $4,509. Silver dropped more than 15% on the week.

Monetary policy was in focus throughout the week, as central banks in the U.S., the euro zone, the United Kingdom, Japan, Canada, Sweden, and Switzerland all concluded their March meetings and opted to leave policy rates unchanged. The Federal Reserve released an updated set of economic projections, raising its forecasts for headline and core inflation in 2026 while maintaining its projection for one interest-rate cut in 2026.

“The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing.”...Philip Fisher

The Week That Was

The week opened Monday with the regular 13-week and 26-week Treasury bill auctions proceeding as scheduled without notable disruption, as markets stabilized somewhat following the prior week’s volatility.

Tuesday’s data calendar delivered a positive surprise on pending home sales. The National Association of Realtors reported that the February Pending Home Sales Index rose 1.8% month-over-month to 72.1, beating the consensus forecast of a 0.6% decline and marking the first increase in three months. Year-over-year sales declined 0.8%. The Midwest led with a 4.6% gain, the South rose 2.7%, and the West edged up 0.9%, while the Northeast fell 3.6%. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun attributed the slight gain to improved affordability conditions, but cautioned those conditions could reverse if higher oil prices push mortgage rates higher. The Conference Board’s February Leading Economic Index, also scheduled for Tuesday, was not released this week due to delays stemming from the government shutdown.

Wednesday’s Producer Price Index came in significantly hotter than expected. The PPI for final demand rose 0.7% in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, well above the 0.3% consensus and the largest monthly increase since August 2023. On an annual basis, headline PPI jumped to 3.4%, the highest in a year. Final demand goods prices surged 1.1%, led by a 48.9% jump in prices for fresh and dry vegetables, along with increases in diesel fuel, eggs, gasoline, and jet fuel. Core PPI rose 3.9% year-over-year. The data captured conditions before the Iran conflict fully escalated energy prices, leading markets to view the print as a floor rather than a ceiling on near-term inflation.

The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75% on an 11-1 vote, as expected. Governor Stephen Miran dissented in favor of a 25 basis point cut. The updated Summary of Economic Projections raised inflation forecasts, cut the growth outlook, and maintained the median projection of one rate cut in 2026, with seven of the 19 participants projecting no cuts at all. Chair Powell said it was “too soon to know” the impact of the Iran conflict, that near-term inflation expectations had risen “likely reflecting the substantial rise in oil prices caused by the supply disruptions in the Middle East,” and that job creation had “slowed to essentially zero.”

Thursday’s Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index came in well above expectations, rising to 18.1 from 16.3 in February against a consensus forecast of 10.0...the highest reading since September 2025. The shipments index surged 22 points to 22.2, its highest since January 2025, and both price indexes rose on the month.

Friday was scheduled to bring the BLS’s final revision to fourth-quarter 2025 productivity. That revised reading has been rescheduled to March 24. The preliminary estimate released March 5 showed nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 2.8% in Q4 2025.

Macro / Policy