Macro Pilgrim's Ledger | May 24, 2026

Stock markets hit new highs as Kevin Warsh takes Fed helm while oil tumbles on Iran diplomacy breakthrough

U.S. equities clawed back ground after the prior Friday’s selloff as the Dow set a fresh record close, the S&P 500 booked an eighth straight weekly gain, and the Nasdaq Composite eked out a small advance, even as the long end of the curve pressed higher midweek and the geopolitical backdrop stayed unsettled. The Trump-Xi summit faded as a market driver, the Fed leadership transition completed with Kevin Warsh’s swearing-in on Friday, and the U.S.-Iran track continued to lurch between sanctions and diplomatic signals.

The S&P 500 rose 0.9% on the week to close at 7,473.47, an eighth consecutive weekly gain that left the index just shy of the May 13 all-time closing high above 7,500. The Dow added 2.1% to close at a record 50,579.70, retaking and clearing 50,000 in convincing fashion after surrendering it the prior Friday. The Nasdaq Composite finished at 26,343.97, up 0.5% on the week despite a Monday and Tuesday tech-led slide and a wobble around Nvidia’s post-close print.

WTI crude settled at $96.60 per barrel, down roughly 6.7% on the week, the largest weekly decline in over a month as U.S.-Iran headlines tilted constructive into Friday’s close and reports of progress on the Pakistan-mediated framework took the immediate war-premium bid out of the tape. Gold finished near $4,524 per ounce, down about 0.7%, as real yields held firm and the safe-haven bid eased.

The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.548%, down 4 basis points on the week, after pressing close to 4.60% midweek on the FOMC minutes and the Philadelphia Fed surprise. The VIX finished at 16.73, off 1.32 points from the prior Friday’s 18.05, as the leadership transition cleared without incident and the Iran track produced no fresh escalation.

“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.”...Vladimir Lenin