Macro Pilgrims Ledger | March 27, 2026

How the Strait of Hormuz crisis pushed global markets into their longest losing streak since 2022 as oil surges past $108

Global markets extended their decline this week, posting a fifth consecutive week of losses, the longest losing streak for the S&P 500 since 2022. The Strait of Hormuz remained the fulcrum of market anxiety, with oil prices and ceasefire diplomacy taking turns driving violent swings in equities, bonds, and commodities. By Thursday’s close, the S&P 500 had fallen roughly 2% on the week to 6,477, now down approximately 7% from its late January all-time high, while the Nasdaq Composite officially entered correction territory, down more than 10% from its peak. The Dow followed on Friday, crossing its own correction threshold.

The week was defined by a familiar whipsaw pattern. Monday brought a brief rally after President Trump extended his strike deadline on Iranian energy infrastructure and suggested talks were progressing. Tuesday erased those gains as Iranian officials denied any direct negotiations and oil resumed its climb. Wednesday offered the week’s only sustained relief as stocks rose after reports surfaced that the U.S. had delivered a ceasefire proposal to Tehran through Pakistani intermediaries, before Thursday delivered the worst session of the week, with Brent crude surging above $108 and the Nasdaq shedding 2.38%.

Neither bonds nor gold provided shelter. Treasury yields rose across the curve as markets priced in persistent energy-driven inflation and an increasingly distant prospect of Fed rate cuts. Futures markets crossed a notable milestone on Friday, with the probability of a rate hike by year-end 2026 moving above 50% for the first time, a remarkable reversal from the three cuts priced in at the start of the year.

“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”...George Santayana

The Week That Was