Macro Pilgrim's Ledger | July 12, 2026
A Hormuz attack reignited oil prices while Nvidia and Meta powered the Nasdaq higher, splitting markets between inflation fears and an unstoppable AI trade
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"Walking the path of global markets, one step at a time."
Week ending Friday, July 10, 2026 (published on Sunday, July 12, 2026.)
An oil shock came back to life this week, and for a few days it looked ready to swamp everything else, yet the money still found its way into the technology names that have carried the market all year, leaving the tape split between a crude rally that reignited inflation fears and an AI trade that refused to quit.
The Nasdaq Composite did the leading this time, a clean reversal of the week before. It rose 2.1% to 26,281.61 as Nvidia jumped about 4% on Friday and Meta added close to 6%, and the debut of SK Hynix's U.S. listing gave the AI memory trade a fresh test. The S&P 500 climbed 1.2% to 7,575.39. The Dow Jones Industrial Average went the other way, slipping 0.5% to 52,637.01 even after tacking on 149.60 points on Friday, its financials and industrials unable to keep pace with the chips. A week earlier the Dow had set records while tech could not hold a bid. This week the tape flipped the roles.
WTI crude snapped its long slide. It settled Friday at $71.41 a barrel, up close to 4% on the week and its first weekly gain after a long run of losses, once attackers struck three vessels in and around the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, among them a Saudi oil tanker and a Qatari gas carrier. Crude briefly pushed past $72 before easing back. Gold could not hold its bid. It settled at $4,104.10 an ounce, off about 2% on a whippy week that saw it swing more than a hundred dollars, as the oil-driven jump in yields pulled against the metal's safety appeal. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.56% from 4.49% the prior Friday, firm services data and the crude rebound stacking inflation worries back onto the long end. The VIX drifted lower to 15.84 from 15.97, the equity grind leaving little demand for protection.
"The Stone Age came to an end not for a lack of stones, and the Oil Age will end, but not for a lack of oil." – Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani
