Macro Pilgrim's Ledger | April 26, 2026

Tech rallies and oil surges as Warsh confirmation, Strait of Hormuz tensions, and dense earnings calendar create market crosscurrents

Global equities posted a modest net gain on the week as the Warsh confirmation hearing, a fragile ceasefire extension, and a dense earnings calendar pulled markets in competing directions.

The S&P 500 rose 0.6% on the week, the Nasdaq added 1.5%, and the Dow slipped 0.4%. A tech-driven rally provided the week’s primary upside, while persistent anxiety over the Strait of Hormuz, where the ceasefire remains deeply fragile and negotiations have yet to produce a credible framework, kept a lid on broader gains.

WTI crude surged more than 17% on the week to close near $97 per barrel as the Strait remained effectively closed, Trump ordered the Navy to target vessels laying mines in the waterway, and U.S. forces boarded a sanctioned Iranian supertanker in the Indian Ocean.

Gold declined roughly 3% on the week to close near $4,724 per ounce, pressured by rising inflation expectations and the prospect of central bank rate hikes that raised the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal.

The 10-year Treasury yield closed the week at 4.31%, and the VIX finished near 18.71, elevated but off its recent highs as the ceasefire extension and late-week earnings provided some measure of relief.

“In the realm of uncertainty, resolution is not the enemy of doubt — it is its only cure” — Carl von Clausewitz