Macro Pilgrim's Ledger | April 12, 2026
US-Iran ceasefire breaks five-week market losing streak as oil crashes 13% but inflation surges on soaring gas prices
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Global markets snapped a five-week losing streak this week as a fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement shifted sentiment, delivering the best weekly performance for equities since November. The S&P 500 gained 3.6% on the week and the Nasdaq surged 4.7%, their strongest weekly performances since November, with Friday closing prices of 6,816 and 22,902 respectively. The Dow finished the week at 47,916.
WTI crude fell more than 13% on the week, settling at $96.37 per barrel, a sharp reversal from the prior week’s close above $111. The relief in energy markets, however, was complicated by Friday’s inflation data. March headline CPI surged 0.9% month-over-month, driven almost entirely by a 21.2% jump in gasoline prices, pushing the annual rate to 3.3%. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose just 0.2%, below consensus.
The 10-year Treasury yield held near 4.29% as markets weighed the competing forces of easing energy prices against still-elevated inflation. The VIX closed near 19, reflecting reduced near-term fear despite the unresolved challenges in the Strait of Hormuz.
Precious metals found little sustained direction despite the unresolved geopolitical backdrop with Gold closing the week at approximately $4,768 and silver at $75.60, Attention now turns to the start of earnings season, with major bank results from Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup due next week.
“Don’t try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. It cannot be done except by liars.”...Bernard Baruch
The headline numbers tell a relieving story…oil crashed, stocks surged, and the ceasefire held (sort of). But the Fed minutes, the ISM internals, and the COT positioning data are telling a very different one.
Our premium and pro subscribers get the full forensic breakdown: every major market's technical setup, what the "smart money" is doing in gold, silver, and copper right now, and the exact macro calendar events that could unwind this week's relief rally before it even has time to breathe. Let’s dig in.
