Macro Pilgrims Ledger

Markets didn’t wait for a recession...they just needed a crowded story to unwind. When data goes missing, narratives take over… but which one wins next?

This week was a reminder that markets do not need a recession to get violent. They just need a crowded narrative, a few fragile leaders, and one uncomfortable question: Is the AI trade still “inevitable,” or just “expensive?” The answer changed by the hour, and price followed

The result was a sharp tech-led shakeout that pulled the broader indexes around, even as other corners of the market tried to rotate into leadership. By Friday, buyers showed up and risk snapped back hard, but the bounce did not erase the message. Positioning can unwind faster than conviction can rebuild.

The policy backdrop stayed also messy. A partial government shutdown delayed the data that usually anchors the week, pushing the jobs report into next week and shifting CPI as well. That matters because when the calendar breaks, narratives fill the gap.

Gold and silver prices were volatile this week, trading in a wide range after recent record highs followed by sharp losses earlier in the week. By Friday afternoon, the metals had rebounded from their earlier in the week drawdowns.

“The sense of responsibility in the financial community for the community as a whole is not small. It is nearly nil.” – John Kenneth Galbraith