Macro Pilgrim's Ledger

Calm markets, steady data...then one headline flipped the script. When policy and politics collide, fundamentals blink. What really changed beneath the surface?

Apologies, but no charts this week. Travel and broken laptop is the reason. We’ll get back to normal next week.

Markets spent most of the week trying to do something rare: trade fundamentals, not headlines. For a few sessions, it almost worked. The tape felt orderly. Volatility drifted lower. Rates stabilized. Equities ground higher. It was the kind of quiet, mechanical price action that suggests investors are finally focusing on data instead of drama.

It felt calm. Predictable. Almost comfortable.

By midweek, the Federal Reserve delivered exactly what was expected, holding rates steady and repeating familiar language about patience and lingering inflation pressures. Nothing overtly hawkish. Nothing overtly dovish. Just a central bank buying time while the economy refuses to clearly tip in either direction.

Then Friday changed the tone.