Grand Macro Strategy
Discover how ‘Grand Macro Strategy’ is reshaping markets, alliances, and global power in a fractured world.
Executive Summary
In a world increasingly defined by geopolitical fragmentation and economic nationalism, the intersection of trade wars, tariffs, and strategic economic policies highlights a profound transformation in global dynamics.
These shifts were explored in depth in our recent report, Trump Tariffs & Trade Wars (November 22).
However, the broader implications extend beyond economics; protectionist measures such as reshoring, export controls, and capital restrictions have evolved into instruments of national security and power projection. This evolution reflects the emergence of a "Grand Macro Strategy" framework that reshapes markets, alliances, and the balance of power worldwide.
Trade wars epitomize this shift, acting as disruptive turning points that alter supply chains, heighten inflation, and redefine influence among nations.
Historical and contemporary conflicts, such as the U.S.-China trade war, illustrate how policies aimed at protecting domestic industries often lead to broader, unintended consequences that ripple through economies. In this complex and fragmented environment, the ability to anticipate, adapt, and align strategies with these shifts has become essential for navigating the challenges of a deglobalizing and geopolitically evolving world.
While we take pride in sharing our own insights and analyses with our audience, we also believe in the value of diverse perspectives. That’s why, from time to time, we invite guest contributors to provide their unique viewpoints, enriching the conversation and broadening the scope of our discussions. And we think there is no one better positioned to do this than our good friend Michael Every of Rabobank.
He recently laid out the dynamics of economic statecraft and its role in these transformations in his extremely insightful report Economic Statecraft: Macrostrategy vs. "Grand Macro Strategy"
His report delves into the critical interplay between economic policy and geopolitical strategy, emphasizing the resurgence of economic statecraft as a driving force in a fractured global order. It argues that understanding these intersections is vital for stakeholders seeking to thrive in this era of protectionism and uncertainty.
We are thrilled Michael has allowed us to share his full report in the pages that follow and our summary of the report’s key concepts, and our interpretations, in the following overview.
We hope you find it as illuminating and helpful as we do.