A Macro Pilgrim's Ledger - The Santiago Way

A way weekly report by Brent Johnson. 11.16.25.

“Walking the path of global markets, one step at a time.”

Markets spent the week trading without the usual anchors as the shutdown left the October inflation reports unproduced and investors without the flow of official data.

Equities were volatile throughout, and the government’s reopening triggered a sharp selloff as traders focused on the absence of critical price information rather than the resolution of the funding lapse. The missing CPI and PPI reports removed the reference points that typically frame month-to-month expectations, and trading reflected the discomfort of operating without them.

The VIX climbed as uncertainty grew over whether the AI-driven advance could continue in the absence of clear inflation signals. Digital assets and precious metals added to the noise, with Bitcoin sliding steadily and finishing near the lows while gold and silver swung back and forth on shifting rate expectations.

The combination of a reopened government, incomplete economic visibility, and unsettled trading conditions left the week defined more by what was missing than by what was released.

“In periods of high uncertainty the common assumption that the most likely outcome will happen is the most dangerous psychological trap.” – Stanley Druckenmiller