A Macro Pilgrim's Ledger - The Santiago Way

Brent Johnson's weekly report for the week of October 26, 2025.

Heading into the week, markets found themselves on steadier footing. After several volatile sessions earlier in the month, equities moved higher as investors interpreted the latest inflation data as evidence that pricing pressures are continuing to ease.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both posted moderate weekly gains, while the Dow extended its recovery as defensive sectors outperformed. In fixed income, Treasury yields drifted lower across the curve.

The 10-year note hovered near 4.3 percent, retreating from recent highs as markets weighed a softer growth outlook and anticipated near-term stability from the Federal Reserve.

Short-term yields followed suit, compressing spreads slightly and signaling that policy expectations remain anchored ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting.

Global bond markets mirrored the move, with European and Asian yields easing in tandem.

Volatility remained subdued throughout the week. The VIX stayed contained within its recent range, indicating little appetite for downside hedging despite lingering macro uncertainty.

Currency markets were mostly quiet, and commodity prices moved narrowly as liquidity conditions steadied.

“Investing is an act of faith — believing your assessment today still matters tomorrow.”
— Aswath Damodaran