A Macro Pilgrim's Ledger - The Santiago Way

Markets rallied into Thanksgiving, but the data tells a different story. Housing, sentiment, metals...something’s shifting. What comes next?

“Walking the path of global markets, one step at a time.”

The week unfolded within a holiday shortened schedule as markets navigated lighter trading conditions around Thanksgiving. Equities extended their advance, with the S&P 500 posting its strongest Thanksgiving week since 2009, while volatility eased across major benchmarks. Gold and silver added to the steadier tone, with both metals moving higher alongside broader risk assets.

As delayed federal data returned to the calendar, the flow of housing indicators, confidence readings, and regional manufacturing surveys provided a clearer picture of conditions heading into year end. Policy communication reentered the backdrop, and the combination of subdued volatility and reduced holiday volume allowed the week’s releases to move through markets in a more orderly way.

By the end of the week, rising equity prices, firmer precious metals, and the seasonal rhythm of the Thanksgiving calendar shaped how participants absorbed the information. Trading remained orderly, the data flow filled in gaps left by the shutdown, and financial conditions held steadier than earlier in the fall.

“Psychology is probably the most important factor in the market, and one that is least understood.” David Dreman