Trade Wars Are Back: A Macro Pilgrim's Ledger (October 12, 2025)

Trade wars are back, and they brought volatility with them. Is this a replay of 2018...or the opening act of something bigger?

“Walking the path of global markets, one step at a time.”

Markets were rattled as geopolitics replaced policy as the week’s dominant force. A renewed U.S.–China confrontation over trade and technology triggered violent swings across asset classes, shattering the calm that had defined much of the summer.

Investors who had grown comfortable with steady gains were reminded that stability can vanish in a headline. The week’s turmoil exposed how dependent sentiment has become on an assumption of order…and how fragile that assumption really is.

Confidence, once effortless, now feels conditional. The balance between complacency and caution has rarely been thinner.

After months of steady advances and tightening spreads, the market’s reflex to buy every dip finally met resistance. The shift is not yet decisive, but it is loud enough to break the illusion of one-way momentum.

A new variable…political risk…has entered the conversation, and with it comes the potential to reshape both positioning and psychology.

“Calm seas never made a skilled sailor.” — Franklin D. Roosevelt