A Macro Pilgrim's Ledger

The Santiago Way

Introduction

The week opened with a dense run of economic releases that touched nearly every part of the U.S. landscape. Manufacturing surveys, inflation readings, housing turnover, and consumer sentiment all arrived in close succession, giving investors a steady stream of information at a time when clarity remains scarce. The backdrop was further complicated by renewed debate over whether the extraordinary enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence has pushed markets into bubble territory.

As the data unfolded, price action turned uneven. Volatility picked up, reflecting how sensitive markets have become to even modest surprises. Several of the most visible AI names experienced sharp swings, forcing traders to confront whether the narrow leadership that has carried the rally can continue to hold under growing scrutiny.

The release of the FOMC Minutes added another layer of uncertainty. Policymakers stressed patience and reiterated the need for sustained progress on inflation before considering adjustments. Volatility measures rose accordingly as participants weighed heavy data, policy ambiguity, and questions surrounding the durability of the AI trade.

“Every banker knows that if he has to prove he is worthy of credit, however good may be his arguments, in fact his credit is gone.” — Walter Bagehot, Lombard Street